Green's Norris PotentialDuring the offseason this year, I was quite vocal about Washington's needs and subsquent moves. Its no secret that I believed our primary efforts should have gone towards resigning Cristobal Huet. I loved Mike Green and everything he brought to the team, but I felt his 18 goals were the ceiling of his talent. He wanted 5 million a year. I thought we could've spent the money better elsewhere. Well, Mr. Green, congragulations on making me look like a moron. And to be honest with you, I've never been so happy to eat my words. Washington fans knew last year that they had something special in Mike Green. After a record setting 8 straight games with a goal (he goes for his ninth today against Florida) the rest of the NHL has taken notice too. While coaches and players everywhere are singing his praise, blogs and message boards are buzzing: can Mike Green walk away with the Norris Trophy at this season's end?
Detractors continually point to the
defensive aspect of his game, labeling him as a mediocre in his own end. They claim him to be nothing more than a fourth forward, getting the majority of his points on the powerplay. Green's +27 rating begs to differ. Among defensemen, only Dennis Wideman has a better plus/minus at +29. Because of Bruce Boudreau's high-octane system, Mike Green frequently joins (and even leads) the rush into the offensive end. This causes a forward to backcheck a little more than usual. Should that forward miss his assignment, opposing teams are able to generate an odd man rush. Green's speed, however, enables him to catch up and often break up the play.
Green has drawn compirsons to Paul Coffey, and appropriately so. He is averaging over a point per game (50 in 43), and has a legitamate chance to score 30 goals this season. Along with teammate Alexander Semin, Green boasts one of the sickest wrist shots in the league. His stickhandling skills are on par with Semin and Ovechkin. But will the overabundance of his offensive talent outweigh the misconception of his merely-adequate defensive ability? The competition is tough. Nick Lindstrom, the perennial Norris Trophy winner (he's won 6 of the last 7) finally seems to have loosened his grip on the award. Lindstrom, along with Chicago's Duncan Keith, Nashville's Shea Weber, and Anaheim's Scott Niedermayer will all garner serious consideration along with Green. But the 2009 Norris Trophy is Zdeno Chara's to lose. Anchoring the NHL's best team, the Bruins allow an astoundingly low 2.18 goals per game. Chara has everything to do with that. The 6'9 monster has been rock solid all season long, and his offensive production thus far (13 goals and 2o asssists) is certainly enough to satisfy typical Norris requirements. Now don't get me wrong - Green still has a decent shot. And if he continues to score at a record setting pace, voters will have no choice but to take note.
Side Note - Between Alex Ovechkin, Alexander Semin, Nicklas Backstrom, and Mike Green, the Washington Capitals have 4 players averaging more than a point per game. On behalf of the fans who remember the not-so-long-removed days when Jeff Halpern was our leading scorer: WOW.
PredictionsHart Trophy - This situation is very similar to last year's. The player who is far and away leading the league in points is also playing for a bubble team. Just as many claimed last year that Ovechkin should only win the Hart if his team made the playoffs, so too will I say that Evgeni Malkin must lead his team into the top 8 before he's crowned as the MVP.
Honorable Mentions - Ovechkin, Iginla (always), Parise (is there anyone else more under the radar than this guy), Datsyuk.
Norris Trophy - Chara's solid season becomes phenomenal when accounting for the Bruins record. Its his to lose.
Honorable Mentions - Mike Green, Duncan Keith, Brain Rafalski, Scott Nidermayer. (Out of curiousty, when will Dion Phaneuf emerge into the dominating talent we all expect him to be?)
Vezina Trophy - Yes, Tim Thomas has been utterly ridiculous this year. But he's backed by a fantastic team. Similar arguments can be made for Evgeni Nabakov. Niklas Backstrom, however, has put together a gem of a year (.926 save % and a GAA of 2.22), and has singlehandedly kept the Wild in contention out west. He gets the nod this year.
Honorable Mentions - Tim Thomas, Evgeni Nabakov, Miikka Kiprusoff, Scott Clemmensen.
Calder Trophy - The only easy decision here. Steve Mason has been a god between the pipes. He should get Vezina consideration as well.
Honorable Mentions - Kris Versteeg, Bobby Ryan, Blake Wheeler.
And now, onto my more random preditions...
1. San Jose will win the President's trophy. They have a few games in hand on the Bruins, and I think the B's will falter a little down the stretch.
2. Pittsburgh will make the playoffs this year. Historically, Florida crumbles, and their pressing need to trade away their best player does not bode well for a playoff appearance. Additionally, I think Buffalo will fade down the stretch.
3. Even if the New Jersey Devils win the Cup, Zach Parise will not get the attention he deserves. Instead, all the talk will center on Clemmensen's play sans-Brodeur, Brodeur's triumphant return, and Shannahan's veteran presence in acquring yet another Cup. Sorry Zach. Keep scoring all those goals. People will notice sooner or later.
4. Peter Forsberg will never play in the NHL again. A world class talent, yes, but good riddance.
5. Ilya Kovalchuk will NOT be traded until around draft day, when Atlanta can trade him for a decisive first round pick.
6. Ron Wilson will get fired yet again. Some team will hire him next year. He'll lead them to the SCF and lose. Then he'll get fired.
7. Canada's cup drought will continue. Toronto and Ottawa are terrible this year. Neither Edmonton nor Vancouver have the necessary skill or grit to beat San Jose or Detroit in a 7 game series. Montreal has been slipping as of late. Calgary seems to have the most legitimate shot, but like Edmonton and Vancouver, I just don't see them beating the heavyweights in the Western Conference.
8. The New York Islanders WILL make the playoffs next year. No, that's not a typo - you read it right. Before you immeditely dismiss this relatively inane notion, consider:
a) Rick Dipietro will be back next season. A successful team is built from the net on out, and Dipietro is a solid goaltender.
b) Kyle Okposo and the rest of the young guns are getting some necessary development this year. They will enter next season with more confidence in their abilities, and more importantly, a better understanding of the system.
c) They stand a good chance to land the #1 pick this season and nab Tavares, who would fit in nicely on the Island.
d) They play in the Eastern Conference, where vertical mobility is much easier. Outside of 3-4 solid teams, it's a relative crapshoot. With key players that should begin the season healthy, coupled with a good draft and perhaps a free agent pickup or two, the Islanders should sneak in through the 7th or 8th seed,
9. The greatest moment in Phoenix's NHL history will remain Ovechkin's ridiculous goal from his rookie season....ouch.
10. Steven Stamkos finally seems to be growing into his own. Assuming that either Lecavalier or St. Louis get traded, Stamkos will be asked to fill a much larger role next year. Expect 60-70 points.